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The Only People Who Don't (Want To) See It https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206854-people-want-see?source=feed_all_articles Sep 18, 2018 - If everything was going to plan, non-standard monetary policy at the zero lower bound (QE) would have raised inflation expectations increasing the level of aggregate demand as businesses and c
More Non-Star Metrics For Monetary Policy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206845-non-star-metrics-monetary-policy?source=feed_all_articles Sep 18, 2018 - In an earlier post and Bridge article, I discussed some ways to use nominal GDP (NGDP) as a cross-check on the FOMC navigating by stars of r*, u*, and y*. The motivation for these pieces was F
Yellen Seeks Insane Interest Rate Policy: 'Lower For Longer' (Podcast) https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206806-yellen-seeks-insane-interest-rate-policy-lower-longer-podcast?source=feed_all_articles Sep 17, 2018 - Janet Yellen has come out of her retirement to continue to opine on what she thinks is best for the Federal Reserve and the United States.She put forth the idea of the Federal Reserve committing to fu
We've Got Really Bad News For Bond Bears https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206719-got-really-bad-news-bond-bears?source=feed_all_articles Sep 17, 2018 - Last week’s inflation reports were lower than Wall Street expected. Our subscribers were proactively prepared.Our inflation forecasts suggest headline inflation could slip under 2% by 1Q19 – far below
Weekly High Frequency Indicators: 3.7% Spike In M1 In One Week https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206456-weekly-high-frequency-indicators-3_7-percent-spike-m1-one-week?source=feed_all_articles Sep 15, 2018 - High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy.The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators.The nowcast continues to be very
Ben Bernanke On Why Things Were Different This Time Around: New Understandings For Monetary Policy? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206219-ben-bernanke-things-different-time-around-new-understandings-monetary-policy?source=feed_all_articles Sep 14, 2018 - Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke has just published some new analysis on what took place in the Great Recession and subsequent recovery.Mr. Bernanke's major finding is that macroeconomic analysis did not
Where Are We In The U.S. Credit Cycle? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4206211-u-s-credit-cycle?source=feed_all_articles Sep 14, 2018 - Where are we in the credit cycle?Are we nearing the end or the beginning of the U.S. credit cycle?Are the yields for high yield properly compensating for the risks?
Wage Gains: Is This Time For Real? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205961-wage-gains-time-real?source=feed_all_articles Sep 13, 2018 - By Kevin Flanagan, Senior Fixed Income Strategist The money and bond markets received another solid jobs report last week. Indeed, the unemployment rate remained at historic lows, while new job creati
Are Bank Loans A Cure For Rising Rates? History Suggests Otherwise https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205739-bank-loans-cure-rising-rates-history-suggests-otherwise?source=feed_all_articles Sep 12, 2018 - By Douglas J. Peebles, Gershon Distenfeld Investors tend to think of floating-rate bank loans as the cure for rising interest rates. But our research suggests that a rising-rate environment has histor
Key Indicators Are Still Healthy https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205445-key-indicators-still-healthy?source=feed_all_articles Sep 11, 2018 - This post recaps the market-based indicators that I think are very important to follow. On balance, things look quite favorable. As always, all charts contain the most recent data available as of Mond

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